Big Oil & oil price prospects for 2015 - JP Morgan ponders..
JP Morgan ponders over a 1980s style U-price bottom or a 2009 V-shaped recovery.
Either way JPM considers that Big Oil cannot distribute its way out of trouble
Share price reactions in 2008 and 2014 for both key Integrated and services names are similar, however, JPM cautions that the subsequent V-shaped oil price recovery in 2009 may not repeat in 2015 given a dysfunctional OPEC and US shale oil. JPM has looked back to the mid-1980s and shows similarities between the oil market dynamics then and now. Specifically, OPEC market share is being eroded and OPEC appears, for now, unwilling to curtail supply. Furthermore, there is a new source of non-OPEC supply (shale oil) just as there was the North Sea and Alaskan North Slope in the 1980s.…